Development of MATLAB-Based Model for Solar Radiation Prediction and Photovoltaic Panel Tilt Optimization Angle for Maiduguri Region, Nigeria

• Muhammad M. HAMIDU

  Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria

  Author

This study presents a MATLAB-developed computational model for estimating the optimum solar photovoltaic (PV) tilt angle and tilted for harnessing solar radiation for Maiduguri, Nigeria, using measured data from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet). The study tackles the lack of tilt angle optimization frameworks and region-specific MATLAB-based solar radiation models for Maiduguri's semi-arid climate, which restricts the effectiveness of PV system design and implementation.  The objectives of this work are to create a MATLAB-based simulation for estimating the best tilt and solar radiation, validate the model using actual NiMet data, and assess seasonal variations and energy gains that tilt optimization could provide.  Solar geometry equations and the concepts of isotropic sky radiation were used to implement the model in MATLAB.  The model calculated the corresponding tilted radiation, clearness index, and energy gain after processing monthly global horizontal irradiance data. The statistical results show that the modeled values are in good agreement with the measured data. The Mean Bias Error (0.183 kWh/m²/day) is very small, indicating minimal deviation between the two sets of values. The Root Mean Square Error (0.256 kWh/m²/day) is also low, suggesting that the overall difference between modeled and measured values is minor compared to the average daily solar radiation. The Coefficient of Determination (R² = 0.627) shows that the model explains about 63% of the variation in the measured data, which is considered an acceptable level of accuracy in solar radiation modeling. According to the MATLAB results, the ideal tilt angles ranged from 10.6° during the rainy season to 21.8° during the dry season, with an average yearly energy gain of 3.9% when compared to horizontal surfaces.  The results validate the model's dependability in semi-arid climates and are consistent with earlier research conducted in northern Nigeria. The research revealed that the MATLAB-based model can improve Maiduguri PV system performance and effectively improve solar energy estimation. Future studies should include dust attenuation and anisotropic radiation models for increased accuracy during the Harmattan period, and the model should be incorporated into HOMER Pro and AI-driven optimization tools.

• FJET_12_69_62

Copyright (c) 2025 FUDMA Journal of Engineering and Technology

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.